On October 15, The District at Verrado Marketplace is scheduled to open with SALT, Handel's and Shake Shack. A Safeway and a speakeasy called Emersa are expected in November, and Harkins, OHSO, BJ's and Tropical Smoothie by year-end. About a year earlier, Tartesso residents west of the White Tank Mountains told a reporter they drive 20 miles for groceries and 10 miles for gas, because the nearby growth they expected never arrived.
Both places are in Buckeye, and both have newly built homes. The difference between them has less to do with floor plans or builders than with water paperwork, specifically whether the land around the homes has a 100-year water supply approval. As of October 2026, the route to that approval is being decided in court.
When you buy new construction in Buckeye, you're buying into a master plan. The certificate behind your own lot may be solid. The certificates behind the next phase, the retail parcel and the road extension are a separate question, and that question decides how quickly the area around you fills in.
Your lot can be approved while the land around it is not
Every residential subdivision in one of Arizona's groundwater Active Management Areas needs one of two things before it can be built. It either holds a certificate of 100-year assured water supply, or it has a commitment from a water provider that already holds a designation. That rule dates to the 1980 Groundwater Management Act, and the Arizona Capitol Times reported that none of the 2026 court rulings removed it.
In June 2023, the state released a model projecting a shortfall in the Phoenix AMA's 100-year groundwater supply. The Arizona Department of Water Resources then stopped approving new determinations based only on that groundwater. Developments already covered by existing certificates or designations could keep building. Buckeye was hit especially hard, because many areas on the city's edge have no designated water provider, so developers had to prove their own groundwater supply.
That's how the same community ends up with two different outcomes. An approved first phase sells out and residents move in. The later phases, which were supposed to bring the population that supports a grocery store, wait. Teravalis, Howard Hughes' 37,000-acre master plan, shows this split. As of January 2025 reporting, its first phase, Floreo, had water for 8,500 homes, and water for the rest of Teravalis was uncertain.
North Star Ranch is the clearest Buckeye example. The city approved the project two decades ago, and the developer built a bridge over the Central Arizona Project canal toward where future homes would go. Then the developer sought approval for a larger plan, and the 2023 halt stopped it. According to KJZZ's October 2025 reporting, Festival Ranch residents nearby were relieved that a proposed 9,600-home expansion was on hold. So a stalled phase means fewer services for one group of homeowners and less traffic for another. Either way, it changes what living there looks like.
How land in Buckeye can get water approval now
Since 2023, the state has opened new routes to approval, and some land around Buckeye has already used them. Each route works differently, so the one behind a given parcel tells you something about how quickly it's likely to move.
| Path | Buckeye-area example | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|
| Designated provider using the Alternative Path (ADAWS) | EPCOR's West Valley designation, announced October 7, 2025, covering an estimated 60,000 new homes across parts of Buckeye and Surprise | EPCOR–West Valley appears on ADWR's designated-provider list dated September 9, 2026 |
| Ag-to-Urban credits from retired farmland pumping | Forestar's 825-home Buckeye project received the first credits on December 9, 2025 | Its certificate application went to public notice that day |
| City of Buckeye ADAWS application | Filed to cover Tartesso and an adjacent development | Reported as under review in December 2025; the city is not on the September 2026 designated list |
| Water transported from another basin | Harquahala groundwater transportation order approved July 18, 2025 | Up to 5,926 acre-feet a year approved for transport; this does not mean water is already reaching a specific subdivision |
The Tartesso row matters most. The approval that could restart growth near the homes already standing there depends on a city application whose latest public status we could find is from last December. Buckeye's own water-portfolio page describes its designation efforts as still being evaluated.
The EPCOR designation has a condition. ADWR's list says a new development can rely on a provider's designation only if it has a written commitment of service from that provider. Being inside EPCOR's general service area isn't enough on its own. The specific plat needs that commitment.
The 2026 court rulings
In January 2025, the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona sued over the state's water rules. On April 21, 2026, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Scott Blaney barred ADWR from using its "unmet demand" rule in the Phoenix AMA, finding that the agency hadn't followed the required rulemaking procedures. In June, he also struck down the Alternative Path's requirement that developers show 133% of their projected 100-year demand.
The Arizona Capitol Times summed up the net effect as "unclear." The builders' attorney argues the rules are back to where they were before 2023. The paper also noted another possible reading: with the alternative route voided, developers in affected areas may have no route to approval at all. Governor Katie Hobbs' office said the order "threatens to shut down housing development" and that it would appeal.
On July 17, ADWR asked the court to stay enforcement of the unmet-demand judgment, and the builders opposed the request. As of an October 1, 2026 Capitol Times report, neither ruling had been finalized, and the state was still weighing its legal options. Meanwhile, ADWR's Phoenix AMA page still states the original position against new groundwater-based determinations.
For a buyer, this means nobody can promise right now when a stalled Buckeye phase will move again. A sales presentation showing future phases on a map is showing a plan. Whether there's a water approval behind that plan is a question you can check yourself.
What the retail timelines show
Shopping centers follow rooftops, and you can see that in the opening dates. Verrado Marketplace already has Target, Marshalls and HomeGoods open, and more openings are scheduled through year-end. In late June 2026, the City of Buckeye announced Festival Ranch Marketplace, a 114,000-square-foot center anchored by Safeway at the northeast corner of Canyon Springs Boulevard and Sun Valley Parkway. Its projected opening is the fourth quarter of 2027.
A projected date is a plan, and plans can slip. Still, a named anchor tenant and a city announcement are signs you can weigh. When you compare communities, check whether the stores near a lot you like are already open, have an announced anchor and date, or exist only on a master-plan rendering.
What to check before you sign with a builder
- Ask for the Public Report early. The Arizona Department of Real Estate requires that you receive a subdivision Public Report before you sign a purchase contract. It names the water and sewer providers, and ADRE advises buyers to verify what it says. Ask for it before your second visit, not at the contract table.
- Confirm the water provider for that address. The City of Buckeye says homes may be served by Buckeye Water Resources, EPCOR or Arizona Water Company depending on location, and its utility rates page directs residents to the Utility Billing Office to confirm.
- Look up the approvals for your phase and the phases around it. ADWR's AAWS map and Imaged Records show issued certificates and determinations. Check the future phases shown on the site plan as well as your own lot.
- If the builder relies on a designated provider, ask about the written commitment. ADWR's list says the designation applies to a development only when that commitment exists.
- Factor in the water bill. Buckeye adopted new water and wastewater rates on May 5, 2026, effective June 4. EPCOR has a 2026 rate case pending that includes its Sonoran district and lists a Verrado community meeting. No change takes effect unless the Arizona Corporation Commission approves it, a process EPCOR says may take a year or more.
None of this is legal advice. These are questions to answer before you choose a lot.
FAQ
If my subdivision already has its certificate, does the court case affect my home? The 2023 halt allowed developments already covered by existing certificates or designations to keep building. The case matters more for unapproved land nearby, which shapes future traffic, services and construction around you.
Did the 2026 rulings end the 100-year water requirement? No. Developers in Active Management Areas still have to show a 100-year supply.
Is the Ag-to-Urban program still changing? Yes. The Arizona Department of Water Resources says amendments that took effect September 12, 2026 created temporary permits that let applicants keep irrigating for up to two years while they secure an assured water supply.
When you're comparing Buckeye communities, I'd rather we look at a phase's water approval and the stores planned nearby together, before a model home makes the decision feel settled. Please get in touch before you register at a sales center, and Gina Hall will help you pull the Public Report, confirm the water provider and look up the approvals for the lots you're considering.
